All Tomorrow's Posts

"The problem is all these vehicles are effective in a land-based operation, but would probably sit out or serve to support others only during conflict in the Western Pacific."

Sun, 09 Dec 2012 10:39:54 -0500

"The problem is all these vehicles are effective in a land-based operation, but would probably sit out or serve to support others only during conflict in the Western Pacific.":

There’s an AEI report circulating today about problems with US defense budget. A few thoughts:

1. Like the quote above highlights, our military strangely enough adapted procurement to *the wars we were actually fighting* as opposed to the cross-pacific superpower competition AEI wants us to gear up for.

2. I agree in full that defense acquisition has serious problems, but the Army buying land vehicles isn’t one of them. That’s where the army fights and what they do.

3. Perhaps it’s worth mentioning in a piece on spending that there were two unfunded wars, one of questionable strategic utility and one wholly of choice, that attained the budget and directed it away from next generation platforms.

4. Insurgency is not peer-competitor war. Insurgency is not peer-competitor war. Insurgency is not peer competitor war. The requirements are different, application of force is different, and the kind of tools developed & weapons built are not wholly transferable.

5. Being AEI, the report weirdly skips in blame from the 1990s to post-2008. Whatever truth is there, that’s highly suspect.

6. Maybe if the F-22 had been delivered at close to original estimated cost, or if the F-35 wasn’t a spiraling debt crisis on wobbly wings, the US could afford a full fleet. Cost overruns and an endless spigot of research & development fighters for next gen craft mean the US is getting fewer planes with the same money.

7. There is no world in which the US is able to field an airforce comparable in size to China off the cost of the West Pacific/East Asia. Supply lines alone hinder it, but it’s an expensive goal of marginal utility.

Drone War Isn't

Fri, 16 Nov 2012 22:13:31 -0500

Drone War Isn't:

” To imbue a weapons system with the political properties of the policy employing it is fallacious, and to assume its mere presence institutes new political realities relies on a denial of facts and context. This remains the case with drones. The character of wars waged with drones is different – the warfare is different – but the nature of these wars do not change, and very often this argument obscures the wider military operations occurring. “

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-caution-on-civil-military-relations

Mon, 12 Nov 2012 12:02:56 -0500

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-caution-on-civil-military-relations:

“The all-volunteer force has fought two brutal wars for over a decade while a (guilty or thankful) American population has stood by with very little involvement. There have been no war bonds, no victory gardens, no bandage wrapping drives, no air raid drills—nothing to make them feel a part of the conflict other than the human interest stories about killed and wounded veterans and the once-nightly footage of shattered HMMWVs and burning convoys. This has created an inequality in experience and sacrifice that the public has generally attempted to repay through extreme deference and ever-multiplying shows of thankfulness, the likes of which have never been seen in American society. Part of this is as a corrective to the disgraceful treatment of our Vietnam veterans, to be sure, but it has consequences nonetheless. In the face of such an inequality of experience and service and in such a deferential environment, public criticism of the military is all too easily dismissed as unpatriotic. Not only is this foil used to deflect criticism, but its threat deters many from bringing up much needed commentary and dissent. Likewise, unquestioning support of the military plays no small factor in making any discussion of rationalizing military budgets and targeting wasteful military spending difficult, if not impossible.”

How to Disassemble an Atomic Program: reliable incentives & payment.

Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:47:27 -0400

How to Disassemble an Atomic Program: reliable incentives & payment.:

“What keeps a potential proliferator (henceforth state B) from taking the concessions offered by the other state (henceforth A) and then turning around and developing nuclear weapons anyway? Well, according to the formal model that William analyzes, it’s the promise of receiving a better outcome in every period coupled with the desire to avoid the costs of actually building the weapons. Yes, B expects to be compensated each and every period in this model, but each and every time B chooses not to go nuclear, that compensates A.”

Selected Wisdom on threat labelling

Sat, 13 Oct 2012 13:36:48 -0400

Selected Wisdom on threat labelling:

” For those that continue to charge there is an al Qaeda and it continues to get stronger by the day, I ask but one question: “Under what conditions would you declare al Qaeda defeated?” If you can’t describe those conditions when al Qaeda is defeated, then why should we listen to your analysis that al Qaeda is stronger?”

"The officials said the idea of establishing a buffer zone between Syria and Jordan — which would be..."

Wed, 10 Oct 2012 11:13:13 -0400

“The officials said the idea of establishing a buffer zone between Syria and Jordan — which would be enforced by Jordanian forces on the Syrian side of the border and supported politically and perhaps logistically by the United States — had been discussed. But at this point the buffer is only a contingency.”

- A buffer on the Jordan/Syria border, you say? Well, that’s weird, it’s almost as though that is one of two Assad government strongholds. And, oh, what’s this?

The United States military has secretly sent a task force of more than 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan to help the armed forces there handle a flood of Syrian refugees

Subtle.

Joshua Foust on drones in FATA

Wed, 26 Sep 2012 14:09:15 -0400

Joshua Foust on drones in FATA:

” Furthermore, the Community Appraisal and Motivation Programme (CAMP), a Pakistan-based research group, consistently finds in its surveys within the FATA that the most pressing security fear among residents is bomb blasts by terror groups, followed closely by the Pakistani military. When asked open-ended questions about their greatest fears, very few ever mention drones.

That’s not to say people love drones. Many constituencies in the rest of the country are strongly opposed to the drone campaign. But both terror groups and the Pakistani military kill far more innocent civilians and leave far more physical devastation in their wake — what is the “least bad” course for policymakers?”

J.M. Berger on the complexity and interconnection in IR.

Thu, 13 Sep 2012 17:52:39 -0400

J.M. Berger on the complexity and interconnection in IR.:

“On the other hand, there’s a rapidly growing need for someone to articulate the overarching principles that guide national policies — both domestic and foreign — so that we are not (justly) accused of continually applying double and triple standards that inequitably allow some people to do some things while preventing other people from doing the same things based on calculations that are murky at best (issues involving foreign aid, harboring terrorists, nuclear weapons and suppression of dissent are among the exemplars of these problems).

And all of this must be managed in a world where, increasingly, single individuals with unexceptional minds and minimal resources can have a global impact, for good but far more easily for ill”

Nils Gilman responds to Jay Ulfelder about Democracy as social technology.

Thu, 13 Sep 2012 11:47:24 -0400

Nils Gilman responds to Jay Ulfelder about Democracy as social technology. :

” It might be true that the benefits to collective problem solving that democracy offers is what works best in a smokestack economy, but that in a few decades, when computing power can directly “read” minds (obviously I’m speaking both speculatively and metaphorically) it will be possible to aggregate preferences without the mediating step of the ballot. Post-democratic political legitimacy will be secured more by performance than by process.”

In which Selected Wisdom points to a new study with implications for CVE

Wed, 12 Sep 2012 10:00:47 -0400

In which Selected Wisdom points to a new study with implications for CVE

Roach drones are great for all those times you wanted your rescue worker to be hit by a boot upon finding a survivor.

Mon, 10 Sep 2012 10:39:56 -0400

Roach drones are great for all those times you wanted your rescue worker to be hit by a boot upon finding a survivor. :

” According to assistant Professor Alper Bozkurt, the team hopes that it will be able to create a mobile web of smart sensors using these remote-controlled cockroaches. The bugs could help with tasks such as finding survivors in buildings destroyed by earthquakes according to the professor. “

New Development in Pyongyang as seen by Satellite

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 09:35:28 -0400

New Development in Pyongyang as seen by Satellite

Indonesian trimaran missile boats.

Wed, 05 Sep 2012 08:05:14 -0400

Indonesian trimaran missile boats.

New winged sailing ships. They're possible.

Tue, 04 Sep 2012 12:05:51 -0400

New winged sailing ships. They're possible. :

“At the University of Tokyo, researchers are working on a design for a ship that uses rigid framework and fiber-reinforced plastic instead of canvas for sails. These high-tech sails can be flown, much more like an airplane wing, increasing the efficiency with which they propel the ship. And, when the vessel reaches port, the sails telescope down upon themselves, to allow free access to the decks and cargo without the interference of masts and sail rigging lines getting in the way.”

Via Will McCants, this article on the FSA has a useful map detailing the different militias involved in fighting Assad.

Tue, 04 Sep 2012 08:48:18 -0400

Via Will McCants, this article on the FSA has a useful map detailing the different militias involved in fighting Assad.

Abu Muquwama on academia, social media, and a climate of constant learning and self improvement.

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 14:12:56 -0400

Abu Muquwama on academia, social media, and a climate of constant learning and self improvement.:

” One of the most effective — and without a doubt quickest — ways I have discovered to identify weaknesses in my own arguments has been through social media. I am constantly wrestling with the comments on my blog or the tweets people send back in my direction. Some of them are silly, and others are ugly, but many more are valuable. I can also observe how other policy proposals are received. Filtering out the sarcasm and snark, one gets a sense for where other scholarship falls short.”

I'm all for algea farms as new energy production, but "border town in the desert" seems like the worst place for it.

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 15:30:25 -0400

I'm all for algea farms as new energy production, but "border town in the desert" seems like the worst place for it. :

” The company harvested its first crop in June without any system difficulties and has since harvested 21 million gallons of algae biomass totaling 81 million tons. Next, the Green Crude Farm is preparing to transition its operations to a winter variety of algae while continuous cultivation, harvest and extraction activities continue.”

On what distinguishes military service from all others, and what that means for how society accommodates former enlisted.

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 11:09:10 -0400

On what distinguishes military service from all others, and what that means for how society accommodates former enlisted. :

” Police forces may be authorized to use force in the execution of their functional imperative (maintain law and order), but it is not their primary or most desired tool. USAID workers are exposed to the same (or at least similar) risks and traumas as soldiers and Marines in Afghanistan, but society not only does not expect them to inflict risks and traumas upon others, society forbids them from doing so by law. “

China is developing a drone fleet.

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 20:46:16 -0400

China is developing a drone fleet.

Standard issue rats?

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 11:05:50 -0400

Standard issue rats? :

” If the training can be automated, it would erase the need to develop a bond between handler and animal, so the rats could become standard issue for soldiers. If costs are lowered, they could be sent downrange en masse, to fit in every backpack.”